WASHINGTON — The U.S. dairy herd may be growing — USDA’s “Cattle’ report estimates dairy replacement heifers expected to calve during 2015 are up about 1 percent from a year ago, while the number of milk cows on Jan. 1, 2015, was 1 percent above 2014 and the highest since 2009 — but slower growth in output per cow is more than offsetting faster herd expansion, USDA said this week in its “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” (WASDE) report.
Because of this slower growth in per-cow production, USDA lowered its 2015 milk production forecast to 211.5 billion pounds in 2015, down 200 million pounds from last month’s forecast. 2014 U.S. milk production totaled 206.0 billion pounds.
In the same WASDE report, USDA ups its product price forecasts for butter and whey due to strong demand and price strength to date. Butter now is forecast to average in the $1.655-$1.755 per pound range this year, up from last month’s forecast of $1.600-$1.710. Dry whey is forecast to average $0.560-$0.590, up from $0.550-0.580 in last month’s report.
The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecast is lowered from $1.270-$1.330 last month to $1.185-$1.245 this month as strong competition in export markets is expected to persist during the first half of 2015, USDA says.
The mid-point of the cheese price forecast is unchanged but the range is narrowed to $1.595-$1.665.
The Class III price forecast is increased on higher prices to $16.30-$17.00 per hundredweight. The Class IV price forecast is lowered to $15.10-$15.90 due to the lower NDM forecast more than offsetting a higher butter price forecast.
The 2015 all-milk price forecast now is $17.40-$18.10, down from $17.75-$18.55 in last month’s report.
Source: Cheese Market News