The USDA is expecting lower 2024 milk production to be partially offset by higher cow inventories. Their latest supply and demand report says the estimated 2023 all-milk price is down to $20.48 per hundredweight and the forecasted 2024 all-milk price is up to $20.95 per hundredweight.
On a fat basis, domestic use and fat-basis exports are both raised, with higher expected butter and cheese exports, as the United States is expected to be competitive on the international market. USDA is expecting fewer fat-based imports.
Skim-solids basis domestic use is also raised based on higher-than-expected disappearance in late 2023. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered as domestic demand is stronger.
USDA’s projected cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices for 2024 are all higher based on recent price strength, tighter supplies of milk, and stronger domestic use. They’re also expecting Class III and Class IV prices to increase in 2024 based on higher product prices.
USDA says milk production for January was 228.3 billion pounds, about 100 million pounds more than expected this month, but still about two billion pounds higher than a year ago.
Source: Brownfield Ag News / Larry Lee