The USDA says milk production went up again in May. Production nationwide rose 1.6% and the 24 major producing states saw production rise 1.7%.
The 24 major dairy states produced 19.1 billion pounds of milk in May. USDA also revised the April production up one-tenth of a percent.
Production per cow averaged 2,125 pounds in the major producing states, and 2,110 pounds nationwide. The number of milk cows in the U.S. last month was 9.45 million head, with 9 million of those in the 24 primary producing states.
Michigan continues to bring in the highest average production per cow at 2,400 pounds. Texas ranked second with an average of 2,275 pounds per cow. Colorado is third with an average of 2,240 pounds. New York and Wisconsin tied for fourth with 2,230 pounds per cow.
The year-over-year increase in the numbers of dairy cows and milk per cow was unevenly distributed among the 24 selected dairy producing States reported by NASS. Texas, Idaho, Kansas, and South Dakota led the expansion efforts by adding a total of 110,000 head. Additional milk processing capacity has been added and/or is expected to come online in some of these States.
Milk per cow per day increased across most of the 24 selected production States. Exceptions include Iowa, Oregon, Washington, and California. California registered the largest decline on a percentage basis. California is the State with the highest number of dairy herds impacted by HPAI from September through December 2024. Since then, the monthly number of reported outbreaks has declined significantly both in California and elsewhere. However, as of June 16, the majority of 2025 outbreaks (139 out of 156 nationwide) were in California and Idaho.
In the first 4 months of 2025, milk production on a per day basis was year-over-year higher than in 2024. The production of milk fat and nonfat skim solids grew at a faster pace than the milk production as a whole. Higher concentration of components in milk means that more dairy products can be manufactured using the same or even less quantity of milk.
Based on recent milk production data, the dairy herd forecast for 2025 stands at 9.420 million head, an increase of 10,000 cows compared to last month’s projection. Milk yield per cow is forecast at 24,185 pounds per cow, up 30 pounds from last month’s estimate. Consequently, the milk production forecast has been revised to 227.8 billion pounds, 0.5 billion pounds higher than the previous projection.
U.S. domestic demand for international dairy products is expected to remain robust in 2025. While higher prices may stimulate imports of certain dairy products, butter imports so far in 2025 appear to be influenced by factors beyond price competitiveness, particularly consumer preferences for specialty products such as grass-fed butter. To date, Ireland remains the primary supplier of butter to the United States, maintaining a dominant market position. In a distant second place is New Zealand, which exports specialty butter products imported to the United States at prices well above domestic wholesale butter prices.
Source: USDA
