A dairy economist says the September milk production numbers continue to highlight the exceptional supply growth over the past year.
William Loux with the U.S. Dairy Export Council and National Milk Producers Federation tells Brownfield farmers have added 235,000 milking cows and increased production by more than four percent year-over-year.
“Because of the value of the black calf, of the beef on dairy, you’ve seen folks go from perhaps on average three lactations for milking cows and now four lactations,” he says. “If you do that across the country, what you’ve effectively done is increased the milking herd by 25 percent.”
The September data was delayed because of the partial shutdown of the U.S. government and was released on Monday.
Loux says growth has also been planned alongside added processing capacity. “Kansas and Texas, and Idaho and Western New York and South Dakota—basically all across the country, we were adding some new processing here in the last few years,” he says. “A lot of it, very big plants.”
The USDA says milk production in 24 major dairy states totaled 18.3 billion pounds in September, with production per cow up 30 pounds from last year.
Top states increasing milk production during the month include Kansas (+21.1%), Georgia (+9.8%), and South Dakota (+9.4%). The largest declines were reported in Washington (-8.5%) and Illinois (-1.5%).
Michigan dairy cows had the highest output at 2,260 pounds per cow, more than 260 pounds above the national average.
Loux says he doesn’t expect to see major production shifts until the second half of 2026, given the current pricing environment.
