A USDA livestock economist says the impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza on milk production seems to be dwindling.

Peyton Ferrier says there has been a noticeable decline in milk output, especially in California, where hundreds of new cases of the virus in cattle have been reported since September.

“Milk per cow was down 7.3 percent for the five-year average in Q4 2024, and in January of 2025, it was still down 5.5 percent,” he says.

California is home to 18 percent of the U.S. dairy herd.

Ferrier says he’s watching to see how a reduced number of cases could impact the numbers or if other factors are at play.

“In January, there were far fewer detections, I believe the number was 46, and 16 new detections in February,” he says.

USDA expects production this year to increase by a half of a percent because of a slight increase in milk per cow and herd inventories, leading to stable milk prices.

Source: Brownfield Ag News